How an Orthodontist Flips A Coin...

April 2024:  Favorite ortho stories, industry insights, and study clubs/events for my local area orthodontists

 Two orthodontists walk into a room.

One was a young, distinguished academic…  the other a 50-something private practitioner.

Their task was to answer the following:

A researcher showed them a quarter.

“Assume that this coin is deemed fair by me.  I just flipped it ninety-nine times… and got heads each time.  What are the odds of getting tails on the next throw?”

The academic answered first:   “Pssh. Easy. 50% percent. The trick is that each throw is independent.”

 Then the private practitioner answered:

 “…No more than 1%.

The researcher replied:

“Why on earth would you say that…!? The coin was deemed fair by me.”

 The private-practitioner replied:

“Look... either your ‘fairness’ claim is full of crap... or I’m a pure sucker. That coin has gotta be loaded!  No explicative way the coin landed 99 times heads without something else happening.  Let me flip it a handful of times, then I’ll answer!”

 I love this story for two reasons.

1. This story explains why C students sometimes get farther ahead than A students.  Experiences in real life can be of little resemblance to the theoretical answers we encountered in school.  There are too many hidden variables to account for.  We all fall for the ludic fallacy.  

    

2. In this industry …there are lot of hidden variables.

This is why no one can definitively claim that self-ligating brackets are better for everyone, phase I doesn’t make a big difference, and airway orthodontics isn’t proven.  Despite being surrounded by providers valiantly telling me otherwise.

Sometimes, you gotta flip the coin yourself.

Or aptly put:  There’s data and evidence…

…and then there’s what happens when you do it. 

 Which brings me to the juncture of academic research & real life:

Almost every practice has Tx times extending way past their estimated completion dates. ECD issues impact quality finishes.   Because kids get less compliant with each month,  they want their braces off – even if you need another month for that final step bend to hit your mark. 

Practices are also down in production, with March 2024 posting a whooping -14.4% YTD loss.

….So figuring out how to differentiate, treat more efficient, and remove those detail bend appointments should be on everyone’s mind.  Especially now.

Chris Bentson, at a study club in March, showed that appointments do go down with digital.    Upwards of 1,960 appointments on a 400 start practice.

Efficiency, convenience, with great service are what people value most on recent Customer Experience surveys.

Gaidge Consulting has proven that Digital (Digital brackets and aligners) does exceed revenue growth vs. an all-stock bracket model

So what’s this mean?

I made a mistake in a previous role thinking great evidence & data could apply to any practice.    

(hint: It might. But if you can’t navigate a software’s toolbar…a plastic employee will not emerge.)

 So now I say this: mitigate your risks & learn the theory, but experiment for yourself.    

There are hidden variables that impact the outcomes.

Coins only land on heads for some individuals.   

As one orthodontist said,  “Make appliances a total can’t hurt/might help idea, and explore it ”

And as a Gaidge Consultant stated, “You need find your appliance and modality that suits your ability to see patients less frequently.”